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| Vietnam's GDP expanded 7.9 percent in the first nine months, well above the 6.8-percent pace a year earlier__Photo: VNA |
Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam Shantanu Chakraborty provided a detailed analysis of Vietnam’s economic performance in 2025 and its 2026 prospects in an interview recently granted to the Vietnam News Agency (VNA).
Chakraborty described Vietnam's 2025 results as highly impressive despite global challenges. GDP expanded 7.9 percent in the first nine months, well above the 6.8 percent pace a year earlier, with quarterly acceleration. Inflation stayed contained at about 3.3 percent, while credit growth surged to an estimated 18–19 percent for the year, topping the 16 percent target.
Trade and investment remained key drivers. Exports hit USD 430 billion through the end of November, up 16.1 percent year-on-year, while imports totaled USD 410 billion, up 18.4 percent, yielding a USD 20.5 billion surplus. Realized foreign direct investment (FDI) climbed 8.9 percent to USD 23.6 billion in the first 11 months. Domestic investment also hiked, backed by expanded fiscal policies for public investment and a real estate rebound. Services also gained from eased visa rules and major commemorative events.
Still, Chakraborty highlighted vulnerabilities. Natural disasters, including storms and floods, inflicted roughly USD 4 billion in losses, or nearly 0.8 percent of GDP. Heavy dependence on international trade and foreign investment inflows exposes the economy to external shocks, especially geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global trade policies.
Fast credit expansion has raised liquidity strains and funding costs, and the FTSE emerging-market upgrade notwithstanding, the stock market saw persistent foreign selling amid peer competition, compounded by the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar.
Looking ahead, he advised Vietnam to accelerate its capital market development to ease pressure on bank credit, while bolstering foreign exchange reserves as a shield against external shocks.
Chakraborty pointed out three key opportunities that Vietnam could capitalize on. First, ongoing structural reforms stand out as a powerful catalyst. By improving the business environment, fine-tuning the institutional apparatus, and facilitating smoother market operations, Vietnam can boost labor productivity and unlock the momentum needed for fast and sustainable growth.
Second, Vietnam's digital transformation paired with its young, tech-savvy workforce represents a golden ticket. This demographic edge positions the country to supercharge sectors like digital services, fintech, e-commerce, and smart logistics. Relentless upskilling and cultivating a vibrant innovation ecosystem will pivot toward a high value-added, knowledge-driven economy.
Third, amid global supply chain reshuffling, Vietnam is ideally placed to attract quality FDI in electronics, high-tech manufacturing, and green industries, tied to investments in renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure.
However, the road ahead is not without challenges, he warned. Externally, a potential global slowdown, escalating economic and geopolitical tensions, and disruptions to supply chains could weaken demand in major markets, directly affecting Vietnam’s exports. Domestically, mounting pressures around structural reforms, infrastructure buildup, especially green projects, and private sector expansion demand bold and decisive actions; otherwise, Vietnam’s ability to fully seize these opportunities could be constrained.
On ambitions for 10 percent average annual GDP growth during 2026-30 en route to high-income status by 2045, Chakraborty called them vital as a policy compass.
Near-term, ramping up public investment will spur growth, but success hinges on rigorous project vetting and swift rollout to maximize returns and safeguard fiscal health. Monetary policy must flexibly balance growth support with price stability, alongside better financial markets for capital flow optimization. All of this require tight coordination to fuel economic expansion, curb inflation, and fortify the overall financial system.
Over the longer horizon, quality infrastructure spending will help lure private and foreign capital, supercharging Vietnam's competitiveness. Investments in clean energy infrastructure and power grid upgrades will not only support Vietnam’s net-zero commitments but also unlock more efficient green financing flows.
However, it should be stressed that fiscal stimulus measures or monetary easing will only truly drive sustainable economic growth if paired with tangible improvements in business environment and greater regulatory transparency. Vietnam must also double down on innovation by developing a dynamic sci-tech market, encouraging entrepreneurship, and accelerating digital transformation, he said.
Finally, another critical factor is heavy investment in workforce, with training in digital, technical, and green skills. At the same time, stronger social security system will build resilience and drive inclusive growth. Improving labor productivity is the core element to successfully transform the country’s growth model, he added. As of December 18, 2025, disbursement reached just 66.1 percent of the Prime Minister's plan, Tuan said, underscoring the need for more progress from project selection and preparation through site clearance and resolving bottlenecks in materials and procedures.
He advocated shifting oversight from mere disbursement rates to full life-cycle effectiveness, warning that an excessive emphasis on disbursement ratios could lead to the selection of inefficient projects or the pursuit of progress at any cost.- (VNA/VLLF)
